BlogHer - SC Nevada election08 primaries - Comments

Democratic Caucus in Nevada

myrnatheminx — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 22:04:19 -0600

The strategy I noticed and heard was common from precinct to precinct was for Edwards people to give their votes to Obama if Edwards wasn't viable there. I don't mean to say that this was an Edwards campaign strategy--only that individual caucus goers for Edwards seemed to be much more interested in giving their votes to Obama than Edwards.

Turnout was higher than expected--exceeding expectations even within the state so I think locations and precincts did have a hard time coping. All in all, a good problem. I personally received mail telling me exactly where to go and when to go. In 2004 9,000 people caucused--this year, 116,00. 28 percent of all Nevada's registered Democrats. Excellent showing.

Reno and Its Discontents

“Soon Myrna’s brutal social manner had driven my courtiers from the table and we were left alone, all cold coffee and hot words.”

Ignatius J. Reilly A Confederacy of Dunces, p.161

I'm guessing that's a good call but

Denise — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:27:13 -0600

Horry hasn't submitted any entries (they're the ones with the huge voting booth fiasco) and Florence is still not bringing in votes - wonder if they also had issues, haven't seen it but it's possible - and they're close to Horry county.

I'd guess Florence goes McCain but by a close margin and Horry goes Huckabee.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings

Associated Press calls SC to McCain

Catherine Morgan — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:19:59 -0600

Contributing Editor Catherine Morgan
also at CatherineBlogs.com and The Political Voices of Women

And here's more analysis of the delegate count

Kim Pearson — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:15:02 -0600

Another article from The Nation. This one says the problem is the way the caucus system apportions delegates:

Rural areas did secure Obama's delegate edge. His five-point lead in the rural section of Nevada's Second Congressional District, which stretches across most of the state north of Las Vegas, won him the single delegate at stake there. With one delegate in play, caucus math is winner-take-all. So while Clinton won about 43 percent of the area, she had no delegates to show for it. And the delegates are weighed by past voter registration -- not the actual turnout on Saturday -- which can also widen a gap with the true popular vote. But the popular vote is not actually available.

The Nevada Democratic Party only released a statewide tally of local delegates. There are over 10,000 of them; Clinton has about half (5,335). But local delegates do not reflect a pure popular vote. Just like national delegates, if a local precinct only has one delegate, then it's winner-take-all. Precinct totals can exaggerate the support for the candidate in the lead, and minimize the totals for a trailing candidate. (That's why John Edwards' Nevada turnout appears unusually low.) If you think reading about this system is hard, just imagine caucusing. ...

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor|Professor Kim|

In SC...

Denise — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:13:00 -0600

In SC, everyone is tied to a white supremacy group. Maybe not someone in their immediate family, but if you live in SC for any length of time, you know families with that history - those ties and you live with it. It becomes, almost normal. Weird to say that, but it's true.

For young people in SC, this is a non-issue, particularly in the group who have lived all of their lives in SC and have parents and grandparents who have always lived there. More recent transplants - military, for instance, I think it probably plays a role in those votes McCain's getting.

*Edited to add - and we're talking very specifically about republicans in SC, and according to the exit polls, that's a very white demographic. Now if we were talking about a Democratic candidate running in SC, with alleged ties to white supremacy groups, I'd have a different answer. Or slightly different answer. :-)

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings

I would too

Denise — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:09:55 -0600

It does look like Obama's walking out of Nevada with more delegates so I'd call that a win for him.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings

Obama is playing up Nevada as a victory

Kim Pearson — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:06:48 -0600

So the Nation reports.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor|Professor Kim|

sounds like there was a lot of confusion

Marilyn — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 19:47:42 -0600

Her understanding was that she needed to be there by 12:00.

Her friend said things seemed very disorganized in her caucus.

In those reader photos up at www.lvrj.com there's one that shows lots of people milling about outside a building with the caption that hardly anyone knew where their precinct was. Wondering how many caucus locations differed from typical polling places. My mother's did (different spot than where she last voted). Which makes me wonder if those who voted in the hotly-contested strip caucuses really had it a lot easier than those in residential areas.

The Land of Moo

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur

So it wasn't just the Republicans struggling with organization?

Denise — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 19:24:37 -0600

I'm so sorry to hear about your mother's experience. It should not be that hard. Why would doors close that early any way? I don't get it?

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings

young Huckabee supporters

Marilyn — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 19:23:16 -0600

I keep hearing these reports that YOUNG evangelicals are showing a lot of support for Huckabee. I thought the whole women should be subservient thing was abhorrent enough...but what do you make of the possible ties in his past to white supremacy groups??

The Land of Moo

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur