Iowa Caucus: OPEN THREAD

Worried is too mild a word. As a non-Christian, I've been terrified for years by the rise of evangelism as a driving political force.

But it ain't over til it's over. And what matters to me is not so much the results of the Republican primaries, but that the dems present a strong enough case to encourage Americans to come back to the center. Asking them to come back to the left is more than I can hope for.

Nerd's Eye View ( http://www.nerdseyeview.com )

I explain why here ( http://www.drumsnwhistles.com/2008/01/03/who-is-be... ).

karoli (odd time signatures ( http://drumsnwhistles.com ))

I fully admit I teared up and I still am not sure who I'm voting for.

He really does energize and make you believe in this country again.

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

His cadence was well practiced. Excellent speaker. I saw him in San Francisco a few years ago and he had none of that charisma that I'd heard so much about that he showed tonight. If he can keep that fire burning through the next two months, he will be formidable.

Sairy ( http://www.sairy.com/ )

Wow. It's this that gets people out to vote.

Ugh - I can't find it now but one of the zillions of campaign emails I'm getting now said that more than half of under 29 year olds went for Obama while the same percentage of over 65 went for Clinton.

The over 65 must be remembered for their consistency in voting - the under 29 doesn't have, historically, the same staying power with actually going to the polls.

I think the only thing we can be sure of is that the jig is up - we are really, truly, in a place that can't be predicted and the circle around what is certain is smaller and smaller.

Jill
Writes Like She Talks ( http://www.writeslikeshetalks.blogspot.com )

Both Edwards and Clinton are claiming that finishing behind Obama means that Iowa voted for change.

PopConsumer ( http://consumerpop.typepad.com/popconsumer )
Beyond Help ( http://mariax.vox.com/ )

Check it out!

http://tinyurl.com/2lbcb4

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

40% of women voted for Huckabee according to c-span! I'm a little stunned by this statistic! Only 24% of women voted for Romney.

As I just wrote:
Wow, I’m really happy Obama won Iowa

If it matters, my loyalties are very torn between Hillary Clinton, who I originally supported, and Obama’s message. It is very powerful indeed. I know I’m not alone tonight in feeling torn. And I don’t want to see Bill Clinton with Hillary – I want to see and hear from Hillary alone.

I still have ‘til Feb 5 to decide…

MSNBC just reported that 35% of Dem women went to Obama vs. 30% to Clinton.

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

And I totally get that. What's mystified me over the last year+ of this campaign is why so many women DO support Hillary. Sometimes I wonder if they're blinded by gender. For ME (just MY opinion), she has so many negatives that her gender can't possibly overcome them. And I'm an old-school feminist.

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

Good point. But it's true that such buckets were the major targets for each campaign!

Although, they are reporting that there was a generational divide among women in Iowa, with younger women skewing towards Obama, older to Hillary.

I put my link in the link aggregator above.

I'm so happy my prediction was wrong! I believe Obama will be our next president.

PopConsumer ( http://consumerpop.typepad.com/popconsumer )
Beyond Help ( http://mariax.vox.com/ )

Don't make the assumption that older women are automatically in the Hillary camp. :) I'm a 50-something woman who's supporting Obama.

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

for Get Our the Vote power?

Obama focused on getting first time caucusers, and young voters out to vote, while Hillary focused on older women....hmmm. I haven't looked at the numbers enough- it's probably down the the power of Independents in deciding to side with Obama not Clinton.

is saying "good for the people of Iowa" for voting for a black man....and I guess he has a point. Wow.

Huckabee got called EARLY. MSM calling Obama around 630pm pst.

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

Stefania Pomponi Butler

I blog:
CityMama ( http://citymama.typepad.com )
Kimchi Mamas ( http://kimchimamas.typepad.com )

I saw it on the chyron....

Loving the Twitters from :

http://twitter.com/IowaCaucus

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

MOMocrats.com's very own Iowa mama Leah Klevar is live-blogging from her caucus site. Check it out here:

http://momocrats.typepad.com/momocrats/2008/01/liv...

GO EDWARDS!

Stefania Pomponi Butler

I blog:
CityMama ( http://citymama.typepad.com )
Kimchi Mamas ( http://kimchimamas.typepad.com )

Podcastmama ( http://twitter.com/podcastmama ) is twittering from her caucus in Iowa.

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

The WiFi is working and you can get her updates
here ( http://www.essentialestrogen.com/2008/01/liveblog_... ).

So far I love the story about the Obama supporter at the door:

"An Obama supporter is standing at the main entry and asking everyone who comes in if they are 'fired up.' A few people, walking in from below zero wind chills, have given her a rather odd look, obviously unaware of the campaign slogan."

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

I'm crossing my fingers your wifi cooperates! I can't wait!

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

As I type, it is 5:00 p.m. in Iowa, roughly an hour before most will head to their appointed caucus site.

A couple of more sites that might be of interest to those following along tonight...

www.iowacaucusresults.com ( http://www.iowacaucusresults.com ) -- this site, hosted by the Iowa Democratic Party, offers nearly real-time results as the precincts report.

The IDP also as a FAQ ( http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/faqs.php ) and more detailed caucus info ( http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/caucus_information.... ) available.

If my WiFi card plays nice, I hope to liveblog what happens at my individual caucus and there is a host of team coverage happening on Iowa Independent.

www.EssentialEstrogen.com ( http://www.EssentialEstrogen.com ) - www.IowaIndependent.com ( http://www.IowaIndependent.com ) - www.RHRealityCheck.org ( http://www.RHRealityCheck.org )

Democracy Now! had an interesting set o interviews ( http://www.democracynow.org/2008/1/2/community_act... ) with leaders of some community organizations in Iowa. I loved the question that one of the interviewees raised about the corrosive effects of the widening gap between rich and poor.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

I learned about the Google map from a Twitter friend -- I'm finally starting to understand...

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

I can't get enough. I keep hitting refresh hoping for more and it's only 130pst!!!

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

Thank you!

Lisa Stone
BlogHer Co-founder ( http://www.blogher.com/member/lisa-stone )
Surfette ( http://surfette.typepad.com )

Check it out ( http://maps.google.com/maps/mpl?moduleurl=http://w... ). They also promise live results tonight.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

According to this blog ( http://browniowa.com ), black and brown Iowans could be an important swing vote in the caucuses. But when you read a post such as "Caucusing Not Just for Caucasians" ( http://browniowa.blogspot.com/2008/01/caucusing-is... ) you get the impression that Iowans of color have been rpretty removed from the process. It would be interesting to find out whether this strategy for civic engagement has an impact on the turnout. It will also be interesting to see whether it swings votes for Obama, whom the blog endorses.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

Essential Estrogen ( http://www.essentialestrogen.com/2008/01/2008_camp... ) has a great local perspective on the 'courting' (or lack there of) of women in Iowa:

"Listen to the national media long enough and you'll soon be convinced that I'm one of the hottest commodities available in this presidential election. First, I'm a resident of Iowa. Second, I'm a woman. It is true that I was contacted by every Democratic campaign (and a couple of Republican ones as well) and asked to join their 'Women for ...' group. Over the summer, I spent hours in small meetings, visiting with leadership of said women's groups. Those who participated were told that the feedback garnered from those meetings was invaluable, that the views expressed by the women involved were going to be taken back to the top of the campaign and integrated into the messaging, plans and forthcoming white papers. Some of it was. Unless the other meetings held across the state of Iowa were drastically different from the ones I attended, very little of the substance of those meetings was converted to policy."

Also check out her scoop on some last minute tactics and campaigning ( http://www.essentialestrogen.com/2008/01/the_iowa_... ) by just about everyone.

A great read!

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

Wish I were in Iowa today to watch. As most of ya'll know, I'm a California voter for the past 18 years. If you want to watch today's primary from the inside, I recommend:

open predictions thread ( http://caucuscooler.blogspot.com/2008/01/predictio... ), and promise to return later today with "more rumors and innuendo from the streets of Des Moines." They'll also live-blog the caucus tonight, which should be interesting.
I found the Caucus Cooler on Iowa Geek ( http://www.iowageekonline.com ), which has a great list of Iowa blogs in the lower right hand column. She writes about her caucus choice here:
And My Choice Is.... ( http://www.iowageekonline.com/2008/01/and-my-choic... )
Well, the Iowa Caucus will begin in just under 48 hours. And it has taken me up until this, the final days, to make my choice.

Not long ago I wrote a bit about the candidates and why or why not they were in my list of "possibles". At that time I had four candidates: Tancredo, Hunter, Romney and Thompson. Since that time Tancredo has dropped out of the race. Which is too bad but we saw it coming.

After much thought and research I have decided to caucus for...

What, you thought I would give it away?? Nope - you have to go read her yourself. And see the YouTube video. :)

I found Iowa Geek via An Iowa Mom ( http://www.aniowamom.com/ ), whom I know through BlogHerAds
This state's primary caucus system is unique -- CNN calls the rules "arcane ( http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucus... )" but to me it sounds a lot like the vote brokering that happens every day in Congress. Very interesting to read how the Democrats handle their evening caucus so differently from the Republicans...

Lisa Stone
BlogHer Co-founder ( http://www.blogher.com/member/lisa-stone )
Surfette ( http://surfette.typepad.com )

And here is the loving headline from Rasmussen Reports ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/pol... ): As Campaign Season Begins, Only One Presidential Candidate is Viewed Favorably by Majority of Voters."

he Arizona Senator is now viewed favorably by 53% of all voters (a total boosted by the fact that 56% of those not affiliated with the major parties have a positive opinion of him. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide have an unfavorable opinion of him. Last summer, following the Senate debate on immigration, McCain’s stock had sunk so low that he was viewed favorably by fewer than half the voters in his home state. But, he has recovered in the latest Arizona polling as well as nationally.

John Edwards is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 42% and Hillary Clinton is the only other candidate with favorables about 43%. She is viewed favorably by 48% of all voters and unfavorably by 50%. Attitudes about the former First Lady are held more firmly than those for other candidates.

Barack Obama earns favorable reviews from 43%, Fred Thompson from 42%, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani from 40%. Mitt Romney has the lowest total at 38%. Fifty-one percent (51%) have an unfavorable opinion of the former Massachusetts Governor. That unfavorable rating is matched by Obama and topped only by Giuliani at 55%.

Of course, entering the Primary season, it may be that opinions within the partisan ranks matter more than the overall numbers. McCain is viewed favorably by 66% of Republican voters nationwide, Thompson and Giuliani are viewed favorably by 65%, Romney by 57%, and Huckabee by 55%.

Among Democrats, Clinton is viewed favorably by 80% of Democratic voters, Edwards by 66%, and Obama by 61%.

From: Surveys of 800 Likely Voters
December 26-27 & December 28-29, 2007