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Once I got over the ridiculous name —- and thank you, HuffPo, for sharing the Mad TV sketch that long predates the iPad announcement —- I started to see how the new Apple iPad fits in the current market.
It doesn't. That's right, it doesn't. And I predict it's going to be a pretty big success, too.
The iPad competes against non-consumption. There is no existing electronic device that it effectively replaces. Too big for the handbag, too small for most productive tasks, and with its touchscreen keyboard, it really isn't a netbook. This is a new thing. A fun thing.
Let me explain.
Clayton Christensen has written and talked much about disruptive technologies and how they can cause dramatic shifts in existing markets as well as open new markets altogether. One case he talks about is the advent of the transistor radio. Transistors had been around for years. The problem was that companies could not figure out how to use them in their products. You see, transistors could not take a lot of power, so they would blow out when you put them in a system requiring a lot of power to run.
Then in 1965 the portable transistor radio came out. How did they fix the problem of the transistor's low power capacity? They didn't. Instead they came up with a low-power product that actually could use transistors. Here's the thing: the product did not replace anything. It was completely new, for a new market of radio buyer. The transistor radio had no competition (except with itself). It was a hit because suddenly kids could listen to their own music. The radio itself sounded like crap, but that didn't matter because the alternative of going home and convincing mom and dad to put on rock and roll just wasn't in the cards. The transistor radio was competing against non-consumption. Before the transistor radio, people did not have an option except for home or maybe the car.
Now we have the iPad coming on the market, with its low-power, ho-hum performance processor. People are excited but don't seem to have a strong sense of what they would actually do with an iPad. But I figure —- and my hunch is that this is what Steve Jobs and company are figuring —- is that the iPad will find its own place in our technology lives. It won't replace the smartphone, because it's not portable. It won't replace the laptop, because it's not really designed for much productivity.
No, it's for something new: The casual online consumption of media, away from the computer, free of the television, and with no dead trees to think about.
I see the iPad as becoming the morning newspaper, the weekly and monthly magazine, the video screener —- and yes, the means to stay connected via social networks, e-mail, etc. while you're doing all these other things.
When you go to work, the iPad will stay at home. When you go to a conference, the iPad will stay at home. In fact, for many people, I imagine the iPad will never leave the kitchen table.
That's why the mobile connectivity is only a pre-pay option and not at all emphasized. Because this is a device that will live off your home wifi.
And though I certainly have other things I probably should do with my money, I want one!
There has been much concern about digital rights management (DRM) in the iPad. Apple is maintaining very strict control over the device and what you can do with the content on it. It's looking like publishers are counting on it and are pinning at least part of their hopes of salvation in this new media economy on paid subscriptions on this device that is so much more than a Kindle.
Then there are Kindle users who are concerned that Apple seems to be defining a new version of eBooks.
The way I figure it, however, is that the market will sort that out. DRM does not fly with consumers when it makes the purchase a hassle or the experience a pain in the ass. DRM sure didn't work in the iTunes store when consumers discovered they couldn't play the music they bought on another device. We'll see how that sorts out. (Honestly, there is a lot to say about DRM, but I'll save that for another blog post sometime. Maybe a series.)
