Just so you can say that you read it here first...
Sarah Palin is going to go the way of Harriet Miers. She is,
ironically, the sacrificial lamb of McCain campaign strategists (read:
Karl Rove). Palin wasn't the campaign's first choice for VP
running-mate, someone else was (and still is). However, the preferred
choice was one that wouldn't have been initially palatable to the
Christian base, a rather large voting-bloc that had never been all that
crazy about McCain to begin with. Not wanting to further alienate that
base, the running-mate would have to be a fundamentalist Christian -
something the the preferred VP candidate was not. The campaign would
have to choose someone else, someone who would fire up the base and
strengthen their support of McCain, someone who would steal Barack
Obama's post-DNC thunder, yet also someone who could easily be disposed
of when the time came. Enter Sarah Palin.
But how does a Presidential nominee and his campaign so easily dispose
of the VP candidate? Here's how: Choose a candidate who, based on what
you've learned about that person (don't tell me Rove didn't thoroughly
do his research), will dig their own grave.
And Sarah didn't fail to dig. Here we are today: Everyone is in an
uproar over Palin's lack of experience and knowledge - painfully
highlighted in her recent interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie
Couric - and with conservative leaders and pundits becoming more
nervous and critical by the day, look for Miss Alaska to go bye-bye. But she won't
be "fired" by the campaign, that would open McCain up to accusations of
sexism, or having "bad decision-making skills" for choosing her in the
first place. No, Palin will "voluntarily" step-down, and her honorable
reason will be that she "needs to spend more time with her family", or
"her baby needs her", or any number/combination of "family-values"
When will she step down? There are two options. Either before the
debate with Joe Biden (this Thursday), or after the debate - a debate
she is bound to lose miserably (if she couldn't make it through an
interview with Katie Couric, how the hell is she going to go toe-to-toe
with Biden?). After a disastrous debate, the criticism from all sides
will intensify, causing the Republicans to further panic about their
chances of winning the election in November. So, I'm guessing it will
See, the Republicans will be in a post-debate panic, fretfully wishing that McCain would have chosen someone - anyone
- else. At that point, Palin will gracefully step down, exit stage
left, and the "new" (the real) VP candidate will be anointed. There
won't be any flak from the base about the replacement, either - they
will be too relieved to have Palin gone to complain.
Plus, an added bonus to this Rovian scheme is that the media will be
talking nonstop about the whole situation and the new VP candidate,
distracting mightily from Obama's campaign. Currently, McCain's numbers
are way down in the polls, even in some "red" states, and with the
whole economic debacle - where McCain made a big show of "suspending" his campaign and flying to the
rescue of our financial institutions, yet failing to deliver Republican
votes to pass the Wall Street Welfare bill - he's in deep doo-doo. He
needs that distraction, that "October surprise".
The potential replacement? Either Joe Lieberman or Mitt Romney. The
Christian base didn't like Liberman because he's a Jew, and they didn't
like Romney because he's a Mormon, but after the Sarah Palin scare,
either choice will look like Jesus on sliced Wonder Bread to them.