Month of Movies: BlogHers Are Predicting "The King's Speech" Will Win. Have You Voted?
Let's be honest. I WORK in the film industry. People send Oscar contenders to my house for free on DVD and I STILL can't manage to work my way through the massive number of films AMPAS saw fit to honor in some way or another this year (and don't even get me started on the films and filmmakers they DIDN'T see fit to honor...but that's a whole other post.)
So here's where I'm at: The Social Network is hands down my favorite film of the year, but keep in mind that I've still got True Grit and The Fighter sitting on top of my TV stand. But that doesn't mean I'm betting on my favorite movie to take home the Best Picture statuette.
(Image © Jonathan Alcorn/ZUMAPRESS.com)
All kinds of smartypants blogs are giving you all the advice in the world on how to weigh the Oscar contenders based on your having viewed all the movies in question, read all the buzz, and done the critical analysis -- excellent Oscar-pool-winning advice if you're operating off the basic assumption that you spend your entire life watching and reading about movies. WHICH I DO. AND I STILL HAVEN'T SEEN ALL THE FILMS. You get where I'm going with this?
So, if Vegas teaches us anything, it's that you don't actually have to know anything about what you're betting on to play the game -- right? Even Moviefone's Oscarologist agrees with me there.
First, the most important rule in the game, and one that is broken by the smartest and most confident among us: Do not let your personal feelings about nominees influence your choices. Nothing feels better than when the movie or actor you hope will win, that you bet will win, does win. But when that hope makes you bet on a long shot and you lose, well, there goes the pool and here comes the disappointment.
See? When you get together with six or fifty of your closest friends and there's money involved? Do what the recession taught you -- forget the movies and focus on the Benjamins.
So, while I've admitted time and time again that The Social Network is my hands-down unequivocal movie of the year? If I were going somewhere with an Oscar pool and not staying home with my sick toddler, I'd be considering checking the tickbox for The King's Speech, which I haven't actually seen yet, because, as the New York Times' Carpet Bagger Nate Silver breaks it down for us:
As I’ve noted, although “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” have won a roughly equal number of awards, “The King’s Speech” has won those that matter most, like the awards from the directors’ and producers’ guilds. The statistical case for “The Social Network” rests on its victory at the Golden Globes, which does have some predictive power; the psychological one probably depends on it now having become the underdog since “The King’s Speech” has been on such a winning streak. Nevertheless -- although we’re retiring the pretense of decimal-point precision this year in favor of a softer, gentler approach -- “The King’s Speech” is overwhelmingly more likely to win.
See? It's all starting to gel now, right? Way to be all expert-y and make us toddler-wrangling deadline riders look like slouches, btw, Nate.]
Taking a page out of the sports playbook, Simon Hopper over at EasyOdds.com seconds my (and Nate's) savvy choice of The King's Speech based on a glance at previous years' Golden Globes-to-Oscar-winners comparison:
What we should note, however, is that three of the last four best picture winners were nominated for a Golden Globe but lost. Whether not scooping at the former is a deciding factor in the latter is hard to prove, but there is certainly enough evidence that basic recognition in the Golden Globes is important.
Meanwhile, they're recommending you put your Oscar money on Natalie Portman for Best Actress (thanks for that brand new information, EasyOdds) and the ever-handsome Colin Firth for the actor statue.
And so far, BlogHers agree with the experts. According to BlogHer's Oscar Poll, here's how we're predicting Best Picture as of this morning:
The King’s Speech: 58%
The Social Network: 14%
True Grit: 8%
Black Swan: 7%
So, final Oscar thoughts? Who are you voting for? Will you go with your heart or your wallet? And FOR THE LOVE OF CORY -- tell me once and for all what your favorite movie of 2010 was. And there's still time to vote in the Oscar poll, too.
And for sure, check back tonight when I will be a glass or two of wine deep and commenting on the Oscars live on BlogHer.com and Twitter with some of BlogHer's funniest ladies. Join us on Chatter or Twitter starting 4PM Pacific/7PM Eastern: #blogher #oscars.
PS: Ooooh, and if Oscar fashion is your bag, check out the Vogue Editors guessing who will wear what on the red carpet. AND FREE BANKSY!
Morgan (The818) is a blogger and screenwriter living in Los Angeles. She overshares her personal life - complete with curse words - at The818.com, talks art and design over at Cargoh.com, and tweets: @the818.