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New Jersey's Topsy-Turvy Race for Governor

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For a lot of national political operatives, the New Jersey governor's race, which wraps up next Tuesday, is a high-stakes game of poker, a test of Pres. Barack Obama's coattails, and a possible foreshadowing of the 2010 Congressional campaigns. For this New Jersey voter, and, I suspect, many others, it's a welcome end to a largely uninspiring partisan snipefest. The mudslinging between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican nominee Chris Christie has so tedious that an upstart independent bid by veteran policy wonk Chris Daggett has got some folks thinking he could be the Brooks-Brothers version of Ross Perot.

The White House is sufficiently nervous about losing this reliable blue state that Pres. Obama is stumping for Corzine today as I write this. Both he and Vice President Biden have been here quite a bit. Live streaming video by Ustream

Politico.com reports that one of Obama's senior political advisorsrecently took over Corzine's campaign. It's telling that after nearly four years in the Governor's office, Corzine's campaign looks as if Barack Obama's at the top of the ticket. Crowds hold "Obama Corzine" signs aloft, and the video slide show on the campaign website features the president and governor side-by-side, touting their partnership.

President Obama Campaigns With NJ Senator Corzine

I don't think too many people thought Jon Corzine would have been in this position when he was first elected in 2005. The multimillionaire former CEO of Goldman-Sachs had been successful in the US Senate, and his self-funded campaign seemed to lift him above the usual questions surrounding candidates' campaign donors. Like his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, he promised to raise ethics standards, cut taxes and create jobs. I endorsed Corzine in 2005, but not because I believed anything that he or his opponent claimed they were going to do:

"I think that Washington's budget woes, made worse by the cost of hurricane cleanup and the ever-rising price tag for the Iraq War, mean that less federal money will be coming to the states for the forseeable future. That means less state aid to municipalities, and the money has to be made up somehow. I have already watched taxpayers in my own community cut off their noses to spite their faces by voting down increases for public education. I expect the quality of life in New Jersey to further deteriorate as the impact of federal cuts trickle down....
"So for me, the question is not, which candidate will spur growth by reducing taxes, but which candidate will make an effort to ensure that we do the best job that we can to protect the most vulnerable during the inevitable belt-tightening of the next few years...."

The economic downturn turned out to be worse than I could have anticipated. The northern part of the state is full of suburban bedroom communities for New York commuters, so Wall Street's losses hit New Jersey hard. People who've never seen a pink slip before are scrambling for jobs. Corzine argues that he has been a fiscally responsible progressive:

Because of Jon Corzine’s strong leadership, New Jersey is already gaining thousands of new private sector jobs; our median family income leads the nation; and, our public school students rank at the top of the country in reading and math. Governor Corzine reshaped and resized state government.
He eliminated and consolidated departments, sold state cars, tore up gas cards and closed office buildings. He reduced the state workforce by 7,000 employees and achieved additional savings by increasing the retirement age from 55 to 62, capping pensions, and asking state workers to contribute for the first time toward the cost of their health care. This year, he even negotiated a 7.5 percent wage cut for public employees.

These aren't exactly the kinds of accomplishments that get folks jazzed up about campaigning for you. And Corzine's opponents, Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett, only have to point to the state's employment picture to support their contention that Corzine's stewardship of the economy has failed:

Christie, a former US attorney who touts his record for putting corrupt politicians behind bars, says his program of tax and spending cuts will improve the state's business climate and create jobs:

New Jersey has
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Maria Niles 5 pts

Although I've heard a fair bit of analysis about this race, yours is the most thorough and in depth analysis I've seen. Thank you for that. As you point out, this race along with a couple of others is likely to serve as a bell weather for 2010 so it's worth watching even for those of us outside of New Jersey.

BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/maria-niles ) PopConsumer ( http://consumerpop.typepad.com/popconsumer ) Beyond Help ( http://mariax.vox.com/ )