Despite the Iraq Study Group’s 79 steps to success in Iraq, or perhaps because of them, the Bush team seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Not fewer troops…more troops. Not more diplomacy…less diplomacy. His new approach, based on a black-and-white power point presentation delivered by Frank Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute, looks alarmingly similar to Lyndon Johnson’s approach to the Vietnam problem in 1964. Johnson was never considered the brightest match in the box, but compared to Bush, he looks like a veritable lighthouse of wisdom and foresight.

Frankly, James Baker should have known better than to write his recommendations in a book. Books are elitist, and they have all those tedious pages. Kagan delivered his presentation in fifty-six, black-and-white, bullet-formed slides. Optimistically titled “Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq, Phase I Report,” it has the encouraging tone of a weight watchers lecture—just follow these simple steps and you’ll be free of that extra burden forever!—and the soothing promise of follow-on phase reports.

No wonder Bush is preparing to come out of his Christmas cocoon fully rested and ready for another round of gunfights in and around the Shia held provinces of Iraq. Here’s slide five:

Victory Is Possible

- 1.1 million ground forces/400,000 in Iraq
- America contained ethno-religious conflict in Bosnia/Kosovo--we can do so in Iraq
- American resources are great: 300 million people, $12 trillion in GDP compared to 25 million Iraqis, $100 billion GDP in a country the size of California
- Success requires effort and will, but we need not choose to lose

The depth of ignorance implicit in this slide is hard to fathom. I guess that because our GDP is bigger than theirs (and we'll ignore for a moment our excessive dependence on oil), we'll have no problem squashing them. Gee. Victory is possible. It’s all right here, a revisionist dream. The disastrous civil war we’ve created and the political capital we’ve squandered can be corrected through a simple force of arms. Iraq is just like Bosnia, right? (Answer: yes, except for all those NATO and UN guys running around in Bosnia.) And bigger is better, right?

The most appealing part of the plan is that there would be no need to get involved in diplomacy with Iraq’s neighbors Iran and Syria. They’re so complicated. Like, do you send Christmas cards or Kwanza cards or nothing at all? Besides, as the Daily Show’s John Oliver said, you should only talk after every possible military option has been tried.

Kagan makes clear that no military action should take place unless the US is plans to “fully fund” reconstruction in the held areas—but that’s all part of Phase II. We don’t really have to worry about all that yet. Now, you might infer that the Iraq Study Group proposed a troop withdrawal because it was quite clear the US has not and would never “fully fund” reconstruction. But, as the above slide so aptly says, “we need not choose to lose.”

The U.S. military is a powerful and costly tool. It can win battles, but only politics and diplomacy can win wars. Without a serious commitment to either, this plan will make short term military gains, but ultimately it will fail. But why pay attention to such trivialities when we have motivators like the last line in the Kagan brief (the last line, that is, before the artfully presented Q&A section, which aids the administration in figuring out what questions to ask, and then answers the questions for them.)

WE CAN WIN IN IRAQ, AND WE MUST

Because when you put something in capital letters, it becomes an affirmation. And this has been an administration built on affirmations, if shy on policy. Meanwhile, as of today, the number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq tops the 2973 killed in the September 11, 2001 attacks. How’s that for an inspirational message?