Iran: Crying Wolf?
by Kim Ponders

This past Sunday in a secretive meeting held for the press in Baghdad, US Defense and Intelligence officials presented evidence of Iranian meddling in Iraq. The collection consistence of spent munitions and assessments from unidentified annalists. The conclusions were damning, if not predictable. Iran is producing special armor piercing weapons (explosively formed penetrates, or EFPs), smuggling them into Iraq with the intent of killing Americans, and to top it off, it's being directed from the "top levels" of the Iranian government. Slam dunk, right?

Sadly, this was a far cry from the 1962 image of UN Ambassador Adlai Stevenson staring down the USSR on the floor of the UN, showing the world on live TV pictures of Soviet missiles going into Cuba. It was credible evidence, from a credible source, for all to see. Now, it seems that credibility is becoming another of our scarce resources. Perhaps the Bush administration is gun shy around the UN after its last credible source, Colin Powell, was hung out to dry for faulty pre-war intelligence. Still, one would think the administration had watched enough episodes of "Law & Order" to develop a credible case, especially in the new skeptical environment in which they find themselves.

That Iran is making special armor piercing weapons is almost assuredly true. The markings on bomb fragments are easy enough to trace, showing when and where they were likely made.

Now it’s been claimed that Iran is smuggling them across the boarder. Well, they are being smuggled. Munitions and other things come illegally into Iraq from several countries, including Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey. Smuggling is a way of life in Iraq and the patchily guarded boarders make it all the easier. (By the way, U.S. officials didn't say anything about what they were doing to close down the boarder and stop the weapons from entering.)

Next, the group claimed that the EFPs were intended to kill Americans. It's true that the weapons are designed to the penetrate thick armor worn primarily by American soldiers. Perhaps EFPs are a logical counter to our “up armored” vehicles. One would only expect an adversary to respond to your tactics. But of the nearly 2700 US combat related deaths in Iraq, over 170 have been caused by EFPs. Though I hate to stand over US casualties with a calculator, that's about 6 percent. Nearly four times more troops have died from accidents. And far more attacks on US troops over the past four years have come from Sunni groups. If the reports are saying that the Shia policy is primarily to target Americans, then our troop are truly caught in between the Sunni and Shia and should get out.

But, alas, the claim that this tactic is being directed from the top of the Iranian government is the hardest to prove. The press conference officials claimed to have evidence from recent raids on Iranian offices in Iraq. But unfortunately, the documents were not presented and the detainee from whom they were extracted was not available. (Secretary of Defense Gates came out a few days later and said, "the evidence speaks for itself."--whatever that means.) Here's the problem: accusations about apolitical leader should come from a political leader. Even Russian President Putin understood this when he railed against US foreign policy the same weekend. It's bad form to have it done from back rooms in a war zone.

This press conference seemed more like a presidential campaign 529 attack ad on Iran. A small group slings mud and sees what sticks. Even the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had the good sense to refute the charges on the Today Show.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that all of this is aimed at effecting the argument on Iranian Nuke weapons program. Perhaps this means we've given up on Iraq and moved onto greener pastures ripe and ready for the bombing.

I'm sure Iran enjoys watching the US flounder in Iraq. However, the Bush administration should either make a more convincing argument or focus on finishing one war before starting another.

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