Open Thread Discussion: South Carolina (GOP) and Nevada Primaries today

The strategy I noticed and heard was common from precinct to precinct was for Edwards people to give their votes to Obama if Edwards wasn't viable there. I don't mean to say that this was an Edwards campaign strategy--only that individual caucus goers for Edwards seemed to be much more interested in giving their votes to Obama than Edwards.

Turnout was higher than expected--exceeding expectations even within the state so I think locations and precincts did have a hard time coping. All in all, a good problem. I personally received mail telling me exactly where to go and when to go. In 2004 9,000 people caucused--this year, 116,00. 28 percent of all Nevada's registered Democrats. Excellent showing.

Reno and Its Discontents ( http://www.renodiscontent.com )

“Soon Myrna’s brutal social manner had driven my courtiers from the table and we were left alone, all cold coffee and hot words.”

Ignatius J. Reilly A Confederacy of Dunces, p.161

Horry hasn't submitted any entries (they're the ones with the huge voting booth fiasco) and Florence is still not bringing in votes - wonder if they also had issues, haven't seen it but it's possible - and they're close to Horry county.

I'd guess Florence goes McCain but by a close margin and Horry goes Huckabee.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Contributing Editor Catherine Morgan
also at CatherineBlogs.com ( http://www.catherineblogs.com/ ) and The Political Voices of Women ( http://politicsanew.com/ )

Another article ( http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15&p... ) from The Nation. This one says the problem is the way the caucus system apportions delegates:

Rural areas did secure Obama's delegate edge. His five-point lead in the rural section of Nevada's Second Congressional District, which stretches across most of the state north of Las Vegas, won him the single delegate at stake there. With one delegate in play, caucus math is winner-take-all. So while Clinton won about 43 percent of the area, she had no delegates to show for it. And the delegates are weighed by past voter registration -- not the actual turnout on Saturday -- which can also widen a gap with the true popular vote. But the popular vote is not actually available.

The Nevada Democratic Party only released a statewide tally of local delegates. There are over 10,000 of them; Clinton has about half (5,335). But local delegates do not reflect a pure popular vote. Just like national delegates, if a local precinct only has one delegate, then it's winner-take-all. Precinct totals can exaggerate the support for the candidate in the lead, and minimize the totals for a trailing candidate. (That's why John Edwards' Nevada turnout appears unusually low.) If you think reading about this system is hard, just imagine caucusing. ...

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

In SC, everyone is tied to a white supremacy group. Maybe not someone in their immediate family, but if you live in SC for any length of time, you know families with that history - those ties and you live with it. It becomes, almost normal. Weird to say that, but it's true.

For young people in SC, this is a non-issue, particularly in the group who have lived all of their lives in SC and have parents and grandparents who have always lived there. More recent transplants - military, for instance, I think it probably plays a role in those votes McCain's getting.

*Edited to add - and we're talking very specifically about republicans in SC, and according to the exit polls, that's a very white demographic. Now if we were talking about a Democratic candidate running in SC, with alleged ties to white supremacy groups, I'd have a different answer. Or slightly different answer. :-)

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

It does look like Obama's walking out of Nevada with more delegates so I'd call that a win for him.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

So the Nation reports. ( http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?pid... )

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

Her understanding was that she needed to be there by 12:00.

Her friend said things seemed very disorganized in her caucus.

In those reader photos up at www.lvrj.com ( http://www.lvrj.com ) there's one that shows lots of people milling about outside a building with the caption that hardly anyone knew where their precinct was. Wondering how many caucus locations differed from typical polling places. My mother's did (different spot than where she last voted). Which makes me wonder if those who voted in the hotly-contested strip caucuses really had it a lot easier than those in residential areas.

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

I'm so sorry to hear about your mother's experience. It should not be that hard. Why would doors close that early any way? I don't get it?

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

I keep hearing these reports that YOUNG evangelicals are showing a lot of support for Huckabee. I thought the whole women should be subservient thing was abhorrent enough...but what do you make of the possible ties in his past to white supremacy groups??

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

Just put up a post at my Obama blog re what my mother related about her experience and that of her friend today in North Las Vegas...

http://tinyurl.com/2p3984

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

It wouldn't be any fun if something weird didn't happen.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

NOW this gets fun.

I'm totally confused, but waiting to hear more.

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

Only 10% of the voters are under 30... and those "kids" sure liked Huckabee ( http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results... ).

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Latest exits show McCain winning SC ( http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2Q... ) while others brace themselves for a Huckabee win ( http://notverybright.wordpress.com/2008/01/19/brac... ).

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Obama may have won more delegates? ( http://www.rgj.com/blogs/inside-nevada-politics/20... )

ecause Obama won in Washoe County and in rural counties, he actually comes away from the state with more national delegates than Clinton.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

...I really thought this one would be closer...

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

published here. ( http://www.lvrj.com ) Roll the mouse over the county for the result. Looks very bad for Edwards. On the Republican side, Ron Paul bested Huckabee, Guiliani and Thompson to come in a distant second to Romney.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

Here's the story ( http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RD... ). Returns show Hillary getting more than half the vote, Obama at 45 percent and Edwards trailing badly.

Kim
BlogHer Contributing Editor ( http://www.blogher.com/blog/kim-pearson )|Professor Kim ( http://professorkim.blogspot.com )|

Just returned from an airport run...and already Hillary's projected as the winner...?

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

I just got back from my caucus location and it was great fun--lots of people talking, debating--just what a caucus should be. I can't say much more because it might give away my identity but the delegate results were more than satisfying. A couple of thoughts on the characteristics of each campaign's voters in my precint. Obama folks were younger and more charming than the Clinton organizers/observers as they romanced the Edwards supports and the undecideds (some Kucinich, some actual undecideds suprisingly).

I can confirm Damon's report above about the Republican Caucus from my own location. It was reported that the Republican Party was only letting people into the building in a single-file line so there was a line of people snaking around the building, and people were clearly frustrated. As I was leaving, two hopeful Republican caucus voters showed up two hours late for their caucus. It seems that the Republican party needs to work on getting their information out to their constituents.

The Democrats were more organized but it was still a logistical challenge and some more signage would be a good idea for next time.

Now in true minx style, I am off to a caucus party!

Reno and Its Discontents ( http://www.renodiscontent.com )

“Soon Myrna’s brutal social manner had driven my courtiers from the table and we were left alone, all cold coffee and hot words.”

Ignatius J. Reilly A Confederacy of Dunces, p.161

Again, Kerry reporting from SC ( http://election2008.advocate.com/2008/01/its-raini... ) is right on target. South Carolinians don't like cold rain and it takes a heck of a lot of passion to get us outside in cold rainy weather.

Conventional wisdom says that rain is good for Huckabee, bad for McCain. The evangelicals make it out to vote rain or shine. Could rain really matter? I mean snow I understand, but really... a little rain?

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Inside Nevada Politics shares ... ( http://www.rgj.com/blogs/inside-nevada-politics/20... )

Some Republicans walked away from their caucuses in Northern Nevada wondering what, exactly, had happened. While the Associated Press and CNN were reporting that Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney had won their statewide caucus, some GOP loyalists were complaining that their crowded meetings were disorganized and ripe for voting fraud.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Here's one blogger's report from his polling place ( http://www.palmettoscoop.com/2008/01/19/steady-to-... ) in SC and voters are being turned away in Myrtle Beach due to voting machine malfunctions. Oops.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

I'll be surprised if McCain or Huckabee can beat Romney in Nevada. Every where I look, it's all Romney all the time.

If the thread disappears from the front page, I'll move it to the headlines. :-)

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

Romney has been expected to win the Republican Nevada Caucus pretty much from the beginning because the LDS block would turn out for him. Lots of Mormons in Nevada and other western states. I'm now off to my caucus location...Democratic results won't be in for another 4 or 5 hours because it is expected to be much closer....

Reno and Its Discontents ( http://www.renodiscontent.com )

“Soon Myrna’s brutal social manner had driven my courtiers from the table and we were left alone, all cold coffee and hot words.”

Ignatius J. Reilly A Confederacy of Dunces, p.161

Denise, is there a way to get this thread on the home page all day today?

I was surprised that only about an hour after the Republican caucuses were scheduled to begin that MSNBC already projected Romney as the winner. Or was he just so far ahead it was a no-brainer?

The Land of Moo ( http://marilynm.vox.com/ )

Co-Founder of Bloggers for Darfur ( http://bloggersfordarfur.blogspot.com )

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RD... ( http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RD... )

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

my kids are playing webkinz as I type this. It's the "sex" part that irks me. And a poll to go with it.

Lust after JFK? See Clinton (Bill) as sexy while discussing affairs? Minor discussion topics over giggles at best. But a poll and constant ass shaking on CNN? Yeah...rant coming.....it's one thing if it's fringe and another if it's constant discussion on my network news.

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

I've been tempted to rant about both of these little musical diddys but every time I start, I hear Gena Haskett in my head talking about the fact that our kids learn and think differently, and use different medias, than we did. And for me, these songs feel like a part of that.

If kids are thinking about politics because they like the Crush on Obama or Hot for Hillary videos, then I guess I can live with that - at least it is an area where we can easily open up discussion with the young ones.

And, I have to say, I'm pretty sure there were a lot of women lusting after JFK.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

waiting for your kick off post. Ha. I should have waited just a few minutes longer.

Keep us posted.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )

I can't wait to hear your take on the caucus-please come back and tell us!

Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

Cross-posted at http://www.renodiscontent.com

And the circus is about to begin. To get ready, I am watching BBC America's "How Clean Is This House" and jumping on my new rebounder to the Rocky theme.

Everyone in Nevada (and outside) has been worried about Nevada's turnout since our caucus in 2004 only turned out 9,000 voters. However, that was a Democratic caucus only and this year both parties are caucusing so the Republicans should add a few thousand. Most importantly, the 2004 caucus was quickly thrown together by the state Democratic party. This year, the caucus will benefit from organization from all the major Democratic candidates who have spend the last few months trying to get people to the caucus.

Nevada probably won't get Iowa participation levels but far more than 9,000 people are going to participate this time around. And when I tried to call the Washoe County Democrats here in Reno, they had a message saying that they couldn't handle the call volume thanks to the number of people calling to find their caucus location.

Reno and Its Discontents ( http://www.renodiscontent.com )

“Soon Myrna’s brutal social manner had driven my courtiers from the table and we were left alone, all cold coffee and hot words.”

Ignatius J. Reilly A Confederacy of Dunces, p.161

I was just surfing along looking for women blogging today's primaries when I came across some stories today mentioning a poll that asked South Carolina voters which candidate they thought was the SEXIEST-yeah, not sexIST but sexiEST.

Seriously. Are we picking a prom queen or the leader of the free world?

Public Policy Polling has the results ( http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/01/se... ) if you care for that sort of drivel.

I found an interesting article by Ali Wentworth ( http://www.marieclaire.com/world/news/political-po... ) at MarieClaire discussing her confusion when her goddaughter-
"plugged in her pink iPod and began shaking her prepubescent booty (her bootylita?). Then, arms flailing in the air, she sang these off-pitch words: 'I got a crush on Obama.' I placed my iced tea gently on the table. Excuse me, but when did presidential candidates become objects of young lust? I don't recall peering up from under my patchwork quilt and seeing a Jimmy Carter poster next to a shirtless David Cassidy."
Politics & News Contributing Editor
Queen of Spain ( http://queenofspainblog.com/ )

The old and the new Republicans in Charleston

I was amused by Edwards' comments on Huckabee and McCain, not so thrilled with the "lack of black Republicans" in SC statement and I think Giuliani made a mistake in not campaigning in SC because Edwards thoughts about Huckabee & McCain are pretty common in SC - they're looking for a better Republican and Romney isn't the one.

And, I think Huckabee did a nice job of handling the issue of the Confederate flag.

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings

Who knew when I found Kerry's SC politics blog ( http://election2008.advocate.com/2008/01/maya-ange... ) last night that I'd be linking it and quoting from it so soon. She's making me homesick, in a big way.

Just to give you a taste of being on the ground here in Charleston, SC, I started my day to the sound of Maya Angelou reaching out to me from a radio station that seemed geared toward African-American listeners.

I know, today's the Republican's day in SC but the last paragraph of Kerry's post is important.

This radio spot had far more religious overtones than any Democratic ads I heard or saw in Iowa. Remember, we're in the buckle of the Bible belt now, and religion plays to both sides, Democrats and

It plays hard to the democrats but even HARDER to the Republicans...

~Denise
BlogHer Community Manager

Flamingo House Happenings ( http://www.flamingohouse.net )