Pakistan polls (update): Musharraf's reign nears end
by snigdhasen

[UPDATE. 11.40 p.m. Pacific Time: Looks like It's pretty much over for the ruling party that supported Musharraf. The two opposition parties, late Bhutto's PPP and former PM Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N),are sharing the spoils and are likely to form a coalition to form a government. Official results likely today. Time for deal-makers to take centerstage :)]

After a violent run-up to a now-on-now-off return to democracy, Pakistanis cast their vote yesterday (February 18, Pakistan time), amidst  complaints and fears of rigging and irregularities, low turnout (I am yet to get a figure, but some reports suggest it could be low as 40 percent), and violence that claimed several lives on the day.

According to Pakistan's Geo TV, over 2,000 candidates are contesting for 268 seats of National Assembly, and over 5,000 candidates are running for 569 Provincial Assembly seats. Since the counting has been decentralized this time, it started soon after the polls (no exit polls were allowed), and unofficial results trickled in late last night Pakistan time. Official results (I am expecting the country's election commission to put up those figures) are likely to come in mid-week.

Meanwhile, the Daily Jang is keeping a tab of these unofficial counts, and going by initial figures, former Prime Minister (who would've likely been the next one too, if she were alive) late Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is coming out tops, with President Pervez Musharraf's supporters (the Pakistan Muslim League-Q and other independents) suffering losses. Coming a close second is another former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N).

The BBC has a list of the major parties running for the national and local assemblies:


  • Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
  • The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
  • The governing Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q)
  • The Jamiat Ulema-I-Islam (JUI-F) of the Islamist cleric, Maulana Fazlur Rahman
  • The Karachi-based Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM)
  • The Awami National Party, a Pashtun nationalist organisation from North West Frontier Province

The All Parties Democratic Alliance (APDM), a grouping of several opposition parties, has decided to boycott elections.

A bloodless coup, a violent return to democracy:

The day, however, remained remarkably free of any major blasts or suicide bombers, the kind people were fearing. The low voter turnout is easily explained by what preceded the elections, but this is not the first time that Pakistani voters have stayed home. The year 1997 saw the lowest turnout (35 percent) in Pakistani history. So we may be seeing a mix of too-scared and who-cares.
A thumbs-up to those who voted despite apprehensions. The democratic process has been set in motion, yet again.

Yesterday's polls were "monitored" by international observers (read about how the U.S. struggled to find observers willing to go to Pakistan days before the elections). Observers from the US include Senator Joe Biden of Delaware (Democrat and  chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee), and foreign relations committee members, Senators Chuck Hagel  (Republican, Nebraska) and John Kerry (Democrat, Massachusetts).

There have been reports of violence that left over a dozen people dead, , including some contestants. Geo TV reports that in some regions, village elders have banned women from voting.

Elections in the sub-continent have never been squeaky clean, leave alone one in beleaguered Pakistan that has been struggling with democracy since its birth sixty years ago. Given such circumstances, I'd say they pulled off the polls quite okay.

It's ironic, though, that in 1999, following a failed border skirmish with India, General Pervez Musharraf toppled a democratically elected leader (Nawaz Sharif) and seized power in a bloodless coup, yet the path to democracy has been a rough road splattered with blood and dead bodies, no thanks to a rise in militancy in the country.

As The Economist sums it up here:

Since the murder of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), on December 27th over 450 people have been killed in political and insurgent violence. On Saturday at least 46 died in a suicide-bomb attack on a PPP rally in north-western Pakistan. This was the third such attack against an opposition gathering in eight days. On Sunday, hours before the polls opened, a candidate of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party—or PML(N)—was shot dead in Lahore.

It'll be interesting to watch what happens to Pervez Musharraf if his supporters are decisively kicked out of power. The chances that the new Assembly will overturn all new laws that he introduced during his regime and move to impeach him, are really high.

I am curious to see how the U.S. repositions its Pakistan policy if Musharraf is shown the door. 

I'll update this post as results come in. Meanwhile...

First hand accounts of Pakistani voters at BBC

All Things Pakistan

The Pakistani Spectator

Saadia Haq

Majeds Blog

The Pakistan Policy Blog

The news sites:

The Daily Jang

Dawn

The Nation (Nawa-i-Waqt)

Daily Times

Pakistan Link

Indian coverage:

Rediff

NDTV

Hindustan Times

CNN-IBN

The Times of India