The Presidential Race in Missouri

There is just over a month to go until the presidential election, and across America, attention is now firmly fixed on the state of our economy. In key swing states, economic issues are now front and center. Many voters, including many women, who often take responsibility for managing their family finances, are wondering which candidate offers the best policies for their family, their town or city, and their state. But in my state, the way that each woman decides to vote could prove especially critical and indeed determinative. Not only is Missouri a target for both presidential campaigns; it has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1904, with just one exception, making it a true bellwether. Here are some facts that Missourians will have in mind when they go to the polls on Nov. 4, and which are particularly relevant to how they will ultimately size the candidates up where economic issues are concerned.

First and foremost, Missouri is the proud home of a lot of small businesses — and in the Show Me State, small businesses truly are the engine of our economy. In 2006, according to the Small Business Administration, the state had an estimated total of nearly 510,000 small businesses. Furthermore, as of 2006, nearly 98 percent of our employers were small businesses. That’s a large percentage, and one that makes clear that small-business concerns will be at the forefront of voters’ minds as they head to the polls —something that is unlikely to accrue to Barack Obama’s benefit. While the McCain-Palin campaign is advocating lower taxes, both for individuals and companies, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have something different in mind. They want to lift the earnings cap on payroll taxes (which could hit small-business owners especially hard) and raise taxes on Americans making over $250,000 (many of whom are small-business owners who file under the personal income tax schedule). In a state like Missouri, where small businesses are so prevalent, that kind of policy is a non-starter — and it’s just one reason why I expect to see support for the McCain-Palin ticket build as we approach Election Day.

Another is the importance of coal in supplying our energy in Missouri, whether in big cities like St. Louis, or in smaller towns like many in my district. For as much as some may decry coal as “dirty energy,” the fact is that where I come from, it generates about 80 percent of our electricity, making it the dominant fuel for electricity production across the state. Taxing it — something that Barack Obama has discussed — would directly impact energy prices in my state, and not in a good way. Likewise, saying “no” to the development of clean coal, and clean-coal fired power plants, as Joe Biden recently indicated an Obama-Biden administration would do, would have a negative effect on energy prices, while simultaneously threatening jobs linked with the coal industry. John McCain understands this, as well as the need for a comprehensive, all-of-the-above approach to solving our energy problems, which must involve more drilling, the development of clean-coal technologies, more nuclear power, and yes, the production of more green power and green technology. That’s something Missourians want, and I believe it’s another reason why the McCain-Palin ticket will appeal most in my neck of the woods.

Of course, Missourians won’t be alone in looking at issues relevant to helping small businesses and energy considerations — many other states share the same concerns that we do in relation to these topics, and of course, with regard to the economy, more generally. However, I anticipate that the importance of these issues in the Show Me State could ensure that once again, in 2008, Missouri proves to be a bellwether – and one where the McCain-Palin ticket could do very well. Keep your eyes peeled on election night.

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson represents Missouri’s 8th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.