Romney Banking on Low Turnout, Enthusiasm Gap

BlogHer Original Post

Happy Election Eve! National polling predicts a tight presidential election between President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney and some fear a long, drawn out ballot count.

Mostly notably, both camps fear a provisional ballot count in Ohio that cannot begin until 10 days after the polls close.

Hanging chads, anyone?

In terms of the final outcome, there's plenty of polling to choose from, but let's examine the two organizations found to be most accurate during the 2008 Presidential Election - Rasmussen and Pew.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney pulling support from 49 percent of voters nationwide while President Obama earns votes from 48 percent with just one percent undecided.

Nov. 4, 2012 - Newport News, VA, USA - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks at a rally Sunday night on November 4, 2012, at Newport News-Williamsburg International Airport in Newport News, Virginia. (Credit Image: © Adrin Snider/MCT/ZUMAPRESS.com)

While Pew Research Center shows a far bigger spread - Obama at 50 percent to 47 percent, with the president holding a 48 percent to 45 percent lead with likely voters.

But Pew 's crosstabs predicts a lower voter turnout than in 2008 and a more engaged voting base for Romney - two very crucial factors for the Republican.

In a deeper examination of this voter behavior, another Pew Research Center poll showed that nonvoters overwhelmingly support Obama, and they tend to be young, more Hispanic and less educated.

Both the Rasmussen and Pew polls noted that Romney held the polling edge since the first presidential debate, but has lost steam just recently, perhaps due to Superstorm Sandy.

A whopping eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Scott Rasmussen predicts the key voters to Obama's retaining his presidency: whites, which made up 74 percent of the 2008 electorate.

That's a significant factor for Romney. Roughly 58 percent of white voters support him over the president, according to Rasmussen.

Of course, there's lots of speculations out there - public polls, swing-state polls, campaign polls and plenty of pundit pontification.

But here's a few fun predictions for tomorrow's outcome:

Mark Twain once noted of prophecy: "two bull's eyes out of a possible million."

Pretty much sums it up... for now.

- Follow me @erica_holloway.

P.S. Get out and vote, BlogHers!

Comments

In order to comment on BlogHer.com, you'll need to be logged in. You'll be given the option to log in or create an account when you publish your comment. If you do not log in or create an account, your comment will not be displayed.