by Dori Glanz, proud Texan & Harvard graduate student

Everyone knows that there is nothing a Texan enjoys more than talking about her state. And with Texas emerging as a critical state in this year's Democratic presidential primaries, this time we might well be justified in talking big. Texans will go to the polls on March 4th, and 228 delegates are at stake. That's the most of any states left to vote. Conventional wisdom among pundits seems to hold that Hillary Clinton has a built-in advantage in Texas because of the Hispanic population. But in the race between Senators Obama and Clinton, we have all learned that conventional wisdom means little in the face of momentum, new voters, and fast money.

Who wins obviously depends on who votes, so let's delve into that a little. In my experience, there are four kinds of Democratic voters in Texas we should consider.

Let's start with the one political pundits like best, and with good reason. In the south of Texas and in the Rio Grande valley, Hispanic voters will have a huge impact. And Hispanic voters so far in the primaries have favored Senator Clinton by sometimes overwhelming margins. On Super Tuesday, Senator Clinton won the Hispanic vote in almost every state, including the other border states of California and Arizona. As the Dallas Morning News put it, "Former President Bill Clinton is so popular in South Texas that his photograph hangs in many Mexican restaurants, an honor often reserved for favorite local politicians or a portrait of Our Lady of Guadalupe, Mexico's patron saint." Despite the Obama endorsements from some influential (and many not) Hispanic lawmakers, Hillary should be able to solidify the Hispanic vote. And it's no small voting bloc. Some predict that Hispanic voters will account for half of the votes cast in the Texas Democratic Primary this year.

In Austin, the high-tech industry, the massive University of Texas campus, and the good ol' hippie roots of the past have produced a breed of Texas Democrat that is young, innovative, and above all idealistic. Forever the blue island in a sea of red, Travis County, I predict, will go to Obama. Not only because of endorsements from bright-eyed young lawmakers like local State Rep. Mark Strama, but also because of Obama's strength with students and young men. Austin has plenty of both. Travis County gets more delegates than any other county in Texas because of high voter turnout for Democrats there in the last presidential primaries. This year's trend of high turnout, especially among youth, likely means that they will account for even more Democratic votes in this primary.

Moving on to the third category, urban voters in the population centers of Dallas and Houston. Here, where the African-American population is concentrated, Obama has an opportunity to draw out crucial support. Important endorsements from Ron Kirk, the former mayor of Dallas and influential Texas politico, and Congressman Al Green of Houston are likely to have some impact. We know that African-American voters are going to Obama, and last time around, they made up 21% of Texas's primary voters, just after the Hispanic population which made up 24% of the vote.

But Hillary fans, don't despair. The fourth category of Texas Democratic voters is women. Readers of this blog ought to know that women are a critical voice in any election. In Texas, we're dispersed throughout every one of the aforementioned groups. Our late great Governor Ann Richards is a hero of many Texas women, and was a dear friend of the Clintons. Hillary spoke at her memorial service last September, and the two have much in common. And, if Senator Clinton continues to get majorities of women voters (she got 58% as opposed to Obama's 38% on Super Tuesday), she'll add to her lead in Texas. Women, last time, were 53% of the primary vote in this great state.

In short, the race in Texas is not just about the Hispanic population, and it's going to be a close contest. As always, political junkies had best keep their eyes on Texas. Even elections are bigger here, this year.