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Current Democratic campaign messages in a paragraph or less.
Media wisdom: If Clinton doesn't win big either Ohio or Texas, it's done (see Clinton, B and Carville, J). Hillary misread this election. The first woman candidate, for god sakes, could have been about change, but she and her advisers ran as the Establishment candidate. They blew it.
Clinton: I’m ready on day one. If the phone rings at 3 am with a world crisis, you want me, experienced and ready to lead like my ad says. Obama is spending like crazy to win, but he can’t seem to close this thing: as my adviser Howard Wolfson said, "If he is unable to win all four states it shows Democrats are engaged in what some in the media have called buyers' remorse." And, if you’re an Ohio voter, here’s a special NAFTA message: I have been critical of it for a long time and I’m going to take a long hard look at it when I win (and ps, why did an Obama adviser call Canadian officials and tell them “not to worry” about Obama’s tough talk on NAFTA)? In short, the press loves Obama so much, and he’s run so hard, and I’M STILL HERE, DAMN IT!!!
Obama: Hillary is using fear-mongering, tired tactics just like Bush did in 2004. I have better judgment than her anyway- here’s my counter ad saying I had real judgment on Iraq. Anyway, it doesn’t matter, because my Campaign Manager Plouffe says "The Clinton campaign has said they need to win both Texas and Ohio by over ten points…They are going to fail on that measure and fail miserably."
Pretty ridiculous, eh, that the future of our country boils down to a few talking points. All of which, by the way, have been generated by overpaid campaign consultants and are mostly about tactics and process. It’s time to end this endless chess game.
So here’s my question. Women of Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island is this your time? In Texas and Ohio, women will likely be between 52% and 59% of voters, based on previous data. And this year, turnout will be even higher, with more unmarried women and youth turning out. Many factors are at play, but it
s fair to say the women's vote is the biggest. Texan Dori Glanz writes:
Who wins will depend on a lot of things—which voters are informed about the bizarre “Texas Two Step” which allows voters to vote in the primary and caucus this Tuesday, where the Hispanic vote goes (I still insist it will go to Hillary by a significant margin), how women respond to Hillary’s constant references to Barbara Jordan and Ann Richards, and how new youth voters influence the process with their hours of volunteering or with their votes. Polls are tricky in a state with so much demographic and geographical diversity and statistics show that despite polls, Hillary closes stronger, carrying more voters who make their candidate choice on the same day they vote.. Remember California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts? But, one thing I am sure of is that this election on Tuesday will change the face of the state for years to come.
Both big primaries are too close to call. In the latest Cleveland Plain Dealer poll Clinton and Obama are virtually tied, Clinton 47% Obama 43%. But check out the gender gap: Clinton with 53% of women, Obama with 38%. The gender gap holds in Texas too; Clinton has 37% of men, 51% of women. How does this play out in practice? Women don’t always vote for Hillary, even if they say they will. As Robin Toner points out, on Feb. 19th in Wisconsin, Mr. Obama drew the support of 67 percent of the men, including 80 percent of the men under 45. He and Mrs. Clinton divided the women 50-50.
So we’ll look at the results of the Democratic women’s turnout on Wednesday and learn, finally, whether women’s tendency to favor Clinton turns into victory. I think a lot of women polled state loyalty to Clinton but when it comes to voting, the desire to pull the lever for Obama wins over.
Whether women do make the difference for Clinton, one question will remain. Is it the woman, Hillary? Or does the country not want a woman president? Robin Toner’s article offers this quote: “The notion that she is a Rorschach test for where we are on gender
