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On Saturday afternoon at a stop light in Bellingham, Washington, our car was parallel to a teenager standing on a sidewalk outside of a mall with a handmade sign he was constantly jiggling to encourage people to stop in and buy their halloween costumes. I had actually been watching the teenager for several minutes as the traffic crawled by the shopping mall.
When we stopped right next to him I asked him if the sign was working. Taking out his iPod earphones, he said that he didn't know. I also asked if it was hard work to stand out there and make a sign dance all day. His response, "Not so hard. It's better than being inside the store."
If retail experts are correct, that store needs our dancing teenager and a whole lot more to get people to come into their stores this year and purchase halloween stuff. The sales forecast is downright ghoulish.
The National Retail Federation is projecting that money spent on costumes, candy, decorations and greeting cards for the Oct. 31 holiday will fall more than 15 percent from last year.
That would bring sales to about $4.75 billion. Urban legend has it that Halloween sales are second to Christmas. Not so, says Snopes.com, it's in sixth place, according to 2006 sales data.
Even if Halloween doesn't hold the second spot in retail sales-- that would be Mother's Day with $13.6 Billion in sales in 2006-- the significance of Halloween sales has more to do with its proximity to the holiday selling season. Retailers fear that if this year's Halloween sales are scary, it will mean a ghostly holiday sales season.
"For sure, (Halloween spending) will be a signal of what we are to expect throughout the fourth quarter, which is incredibly important to retailers," said Betsy Holloway, associate marketing professor at Samford University's Brock School of Business. Many retailers generate half of their annual revenue in the fourth quarter, and some make up to 80 percent, she said, so the next three months "can make or break a retailer."
While the National Retail Federation is warning of scary Halloween sales, the research firm IBIS World says Halloween is going to be a treat for retailers.
The National Confectioners Association is also predicting that candy sales will be a treat, increasing about 1.8% over last year. To reach that number, manufacturers and retailers are offering tremendous sales on candy. If you haven't purchased your Halloween treats there are great sales and even bigger discounts if you are willing to print out some online coupons.
CNBC has a report on the unusual trend of Halloween specialty retailers actually increasing their number of stores. According to CNBC the specialty stores, known for the wide variety of Halloween merchandise, have set up shop in retail spaces that used to be home to stores like Circuit City and Linen 'N Things. The rent is cheap.
While that diverse inventory is what gives Halloween stores an edge over retailers such as Target
or Wal-Mart
, experts say it's also what makes them vulnerable.
It's counterintuitive for retailers to boost inventory levels during an economic environment that has forced so many to drastically cut back their supply. It's especially risky for specialty shops, given the increasing number of shoppers who are flocking to discount stores, said Abigail Marks, retail economist at CB Richard Ellis.
These specialty retailers are reporting that so far sales are on par with last year. However, to "prod consumers along," the stores are offering huge discounts on costumes and using human billboards like my
