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YahooRepublican pollster Frank Luntz thinks so. He sought to reassure the California Republican delegation that Obama's lead in polls is, in part, an illusion...
Analysts believe voters lied when they said they'd vote for Bradley, when in fact they were unwilling to vote for a black man. Luntz predicted the same thing would happen with Barack Obama. He told California delegates not to get discouraged if John McCain is trailing in the polls, because the Bradley effect will make up for some of that.
The Bradley effect refers to a phenomenon where non-white candidates lead in polls and yet ultimately lose to a trailing white candidate:
Researchers who studied the issue theorized that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. This theory suggested that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate.
Luntz might be surprised to learn, however, that some racists are supporting Obama. Heidi Beirich and Mark Potok at the Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks hate groups, report Not All White Supremacists Oppose [a] Black President (H/T Cecily Walker for the link)
It's not that the assortment of neo-Nazis, Klansmen, anti-Semites and others who make up this country's radical right have suddenly discovered that a man should be judged based on the content of his character, not his skin. On the contrary. A growing number of white supremacists, and even some of those who pass for intellectual leaders of their movement, think that a black man in the Oval Office would shock white America, possibly drive millions to their cause, and perhaps even set off a race war that, they hope, would ultimately end in Aryan victory.
Even without racism as part of the equation, the sheer number of white voters means that, depending on how you slice the data, groups of white voters can be seen as determining the outcome of presidential elections. Shay Riley, writing at The Root believes that White Women Will Decide...
Sen. McCain needs to raise his support [vs. George W. Bush] among whites to 60 percent, and he can do it by bringing more white women into his fold. This is especially true in key swing states, where Sen. McCain is currently polling a five to 20 percentage point gap over Sen. Obama among white voters.
That demographic sweet spot may catapult him to the White House. This would offset the expected increased turnout among blacks and younger voters.
McCain will certainly need to increase Republican share of support of white voters to offset what the party is losing from its already meager showing with African-Americans.
Only 36 of the 2,380 delegates seated on the convention floor are black, the lowest number since the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies began tracking diversity at political conventions 40 years ago. Each night, the overwhelmingly white audience watches a series of white politicians step to the lectern -- a visual reminder that no black Republican has served as a governor, U.S. senator or U.S. House member in the past six years.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for Republicans this election cycle:
Deborah Honeycutt, a doctor from Georgia who is running for a seat in the house of representatives in the November 4 elections, hopes to be the first black Republican woman elected to Congress.
At A Day In The Life Of Tree, Tree writes:
Is it me or should I be concerned at the lack of diversity and the Republican Convention. It looked like the “Old Boys Club.”...
I guess whites in America don’t think racism is a huge issue but for those of us who experience it to this day and had parents who lived through those times and great grandparents who were enslaved, well we have a different perspective on things. So please excuse me if my observation offends anyone but as an African American you see things through historical lenses.
I would be very interested to read what Tree thinks of the choice of Sarah Palin from her perspective as a black, pro-life, Christian mom of a special needs child.
Until then I will leave you with a small sampling of women of color, ranging from conservative to liberal and moderate in between, blogging on Palin
Booker Rising, a "news site for black moderates and black conservatives" shares two views:
Conservative Juliette Ochieng who blogs under the name baldilocks says perhaps McCain is Not So Senile After All and moderate Angela Winters was underwhelmed by Palin's speech to the Republican National Convention.
Here at BlogHer, feminist author, Rebecca Walker writes: The Pitbull in Lipstick Mommy: Five Questions for Sarah Palin.
Liza Sabater of Culture Kitchen was interviewed on CNN.com and shares:
I had the honor again to participate in Melissa Long's livecasting from the conventions. In the first one at the DNC we barely spoke of women's issues. Ironically here in St. Paul and with Palin's nomination the discussion was almost exclusively about her and about women's rights.
Maegan la Mala at Vivir Latino writes: McCain's VP Pick : Palin and the Politica and Privilege of White Woman'hood/ Mommy'Hood
And the always insightful Tami at What Tami Said shares Why Sarah Palin is an abysmal veep choice and what that says about John McCain
BlogHer CE Maria Niles is showing The Daily Show much love for their convention coverage at her blog PopConsumer.
Photo: Billboard in St. Paul, MN during the RNC
Photo Credit: The Zepplin on flickr
I was beginning to think so ...
topsyturvy86 September 7, 2008 - 5:43am
Hi Maria, I was beginning to think so actually and was writing an article about this for something. I am British by the way but totally into the American elections (We all are over here, and most other European Country's are too; France, Germany, e.t.c.).
I and many others here think that because from the substance of the speeches of the democrats and Obama's passion, PLAN, and vision for America, in comparison to the empty republican speeches, his lead in the polls should be more than it is at the moment.
Our economy in the UK is at it's ultimate low since the 60's, we have rising inflation and unemployment and we are aware we need change. Labour is in power at the moment, and although i'm a life long lavour supporter, I would be voting conservative. The conservative party is not that popular, but they have a plan. We here believe you can't keep doing the same things and expect different results. The US economy is in a downward spiral (as with most of the developed world at the moment) and it needs change. Republicans have been there for 8 yrs and its got worse, the republican candidate wants to carry on with the war and has not exactly proposed new policies, so to me its the same. I don't think it would yeild different results.
I think white women can relate to Sarah Palin's life (as one of 'us') and all that but is that enough to vote her vp and potential president? I think race plays a big part infact, thinking about it. Although some people can, not many can give good reasons why they would be voting McCain/Palin and how it would affect/better their lives .. if you keep pressing to get a good reason, they get aggressive or cry sexism. Sarah Palin is not allowed to give interviews at the moment. Why? She's being schooled on foreign policy and so on at the moment and will be in the time leading up to the debate so she can deliver, but is it just about delivering in the debate? We that have been students and worked in the feild we studied know theory is different from practical. You can learn the stuff and pass the exam but until you have practice, you never really 'Know'. She might be schooled for ages and pass the test (the debate) but does that mean she really 'knows' her stuff and is ready to be vp? I'm very sceptical about her ... too many skeletons in her closet, each saying something about her character. Cutting funding for people with special needs children by 62% while having a special needs neice/nephew, talking consistently of selling the private jet on e-bay for a profit which was actually sold off e-bay and for a loss, e.t.c.
Temi